دیپلماسی‌های جایگزین و گزینش نقطه بهینه محرمانگی در مراودات دیپلماتیک

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‏آموخته دکتری روابط بین‏ الملل، دانشکده حقوق، الهیات و علوم سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 استاد و عضو گروه روابط بین ‏الملل، دانشکده حقوق، الهیات و علوم سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار و عضو گروه روابط بین ‏الملل، دانشکده حقوق، الهیات و علوم سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

این مقاله با استفاده از روش تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره و مدل‌سازی تحلیل شبکه‌ای، متغیرهای مؤثر بر گزینش سطح بهینه محرمانگی را شناسایی کرده است. این سطح از محرمانگی باید همزمان کارآمدی مراودات دیپلماتیک را تأمین و البته حداقل ریسک را برای اعتبار دولت‌ها داشته باشد. در این مقاله نشان داده می‌شود که هرگاه بخشی از این متغیرها در اولویت قرار گیرند، چه الگویی از مذاکرات دیپلماتیک می‌تواند این سطح بهینه محرمانگی را تأمین کند.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Alternative Diplomacy and Optimal Secrecy Selection in Diplomatic Relations

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kazem Tajik 1
  • Aliasghar Kazemi Zand 2
  • Mehdi Zakerian Amiri 3
  • Keyhan Barzegar 3
1 ..
2 ..
3 ..
چکیده [English]

Secrecy in diplomatic relations can be both necessary and dangerous at the same time. In the Westphalian system, the concept of secrecy has become a standard and largely legitimate form of diplomatic action by reference to national security needs. On the other hand, with the recent developments in the concept of sovereignty in the domestic and international arenas, the development of such communications, the concept of transparency has been taken into consideration as one of the main elements of national security and has given rise to a concept called the transparency-Secrecy paradox. The basis of this paradox is that secrecy in diplomatic negotiations, justified by national security, could ultimately, and simultaneously, seriously undermine the credibility of governments, and therefore undermine national security. This paper reaches to the most important variables that influence the optimal level of secrecy using multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis modeling. This level of secrecy must at the same time ensure the effectiveness of diplomatic relations, while minimizing the risk to the credibility of the governments applying these methods. In the end, it is shown what pattern of diplomatic negotiations can provide this optimal level of secrecy when some of these variables are prioritized.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Secret diplomacy
  • Track II diplomacy
  • Para-diplomacy
  • Track One and a Half Diplomacy
  • Transparency-Secrecy paradox
بیولا، کارنلیو و موری، استوارت (1385) دیپلماسی پنهان: مفاهیم و زمینه‌ها، مترجم: معاونت پژوهش و تولید علم دانشگاه اطلاعات و امنیت ملی، انتشارات موسسه چاپ و انتشارات دانشگاه اطلاعات و امنیت ملی.
تاجیک، کاظم، کاظمی‏زند، علی‌اصغر و برزگر، کیهان (1398) محرمانگی در دیپلماسی؛ تحولات و چشم‌انداز، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی، سال بیست و دوم، شماره دوم.
دهشیار، حسین (1384) قوه مقننه و سیاست خارجی؛ کنگره و ماهیت سیاست خارجی آمریکا، گزارش مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی، شناسنامه گزارش شماره مسلسل: ۶۹۷۴
دهشیری، محمدرضا (1392) پارادیپلماسی در عصر جهانی‌شدن: بررسی موردی دیپلماسی شهری، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی سیاست‌گذاری عمومی، دوره 4، شماره 13.
سجادپور، محمدکاظم و نگین‏راز، پروین (1393) بایسته‌ها در مدل ارزیابی تکنیک دیپلماسی مسیر دوم، مجله سیاست خارجی. تابستان 1393 شماره 10.
صالحی، محمود (1395) اقدام پنهان: کارکرد چهارم اطلاعات، گزینه سوم در دیپلماسی، گردآورنده: محمود صالحی، موسسه چاپ و انتشارات دانشگاه اطلاعات و امنیت ملی
ظریف، محمدجواد و سجادپور، محمدکاظم (1387) دیپلماسی چندجانبه: نظریه و عمل‏کرد سازمان‌های منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی، وزارت امور خارجه.
قادری کنگاوری، روح الله (1392) دیپلماسی پنهان، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)
قوام، سیدعبدالعلی (1384) از دیپلماسی مدرن به دیپلماسی رسانه‌ای، مجله پژوهش حقوق عمومی، شماره 17.
 
Agha, Hussein & Feldman, Shai & Khalid, Ahmad and Schiff, Zeev (2003). Track II Diplomacy: Lessons from the Middle East. Cambridge: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
Ball, Desmond, Milner, Anthony and Taylor, Brendan (2005) Mapping Track II Institutions in New Zealand, Australia and the Asian Region. Available on: https://www.asianz.org.nz/our-resources/reports/mapping-track-ii-institutions-in-new-zealand-australia-and-the-asian-region/ last visited 4.28.2019
Bercovitch, J., & Houston, A. (2000). Why do they do it like this? An analysis of the factors influencing mediation behavior in international conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution, V. 44.
Berridge ,C.R (2002) Diplomacy: Theory and Practice, UK: Palgrave
Bjola, Corneliu (2016) The ethics of secret diplomacy, A contextual approach, in: Bjola, Corneliu & Murray, Stuart (2016) Secret diplomacy: concepts, contexts and cases , Routledge
Bok, Sissela (1984) Secrets: on the Ethics of Concealment and Revelation. New York: Vintage Books.
Burgess, Heidi and Guy (2010) "Conducting Track Two Pace Making"", Washington D.C.: United States Institute of Peace.
Carson, Austin and Keren Yarhi-Milo) 2017( “Covert Communication: The Intelligibility and Credibility of Signaling in Secret.” Security Studies, V. 26, No. 1.
Carson, Kristen (2012) "Track Two Diplomacy: Transfer in the Middl East Peace Process", M.A. Research Paper, Ottawa University.
Carter, J. (1995) Talking Peace: A Vision for the Next Generation. New York, NY: Dutton Children's Books.
Crist, David (2012) The Twilight War: The Secret History of America's Thirty-Year Conflict with Iran, London, Penguin Books
De Magalhaes, J. C. (1998) The Pure Concept of Diplomacy (Global perspective in History and Politics). Greenwood Publishing Group
Diamond, L. & McDonald, J. (1996) Multi track diplomacy (3rd Ed.). Connecticut: Kumarian Press, Inc.
Duchacek, Ivo (1998) Perforated sovereignties and international relations: trans-sovereign contacts of subnational governments, Greenwood Press.
Esra Çuhadar and Bruce Dayton (2012) Oslo and Aftermath: lessons Learned from Track Two Diplomacy, Negotiation Journal. Vol. 28, No. 2.
Fraser, Robin (2012) Track Two Diplomacy: A Distinct Intervention Category. MA Thesis, University of Victoria
Gilboa, E. )1998(“Secret Diplomacy in the Television Age”. International Communication Gazette, Vol. 60, No. 3.
Grosek, Edward (2007) The secret treaties of history. William S. Hein & Company.
Haas, Mark (2005) The ideological origins of great power politics, 1789-1989. Cornell University Press.
Hicks, D. Bruce (2005) “Lifting the Arms Embargo on the Bosnian Muslims: Secret Diplomacy or Covert Action?” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Vol. 18, No. 2.
Hocking, Brian (1993) Localizing Foreign Policy, Non-central Governments and Multilayered Diplomacy, Palgrave Macmillan
Holmes, Marcus (2016) The social neuroscience of secrets in secret diplomacy; Theorising secrecy diplomacy, in: Bjola, Corneliu & Murray, Stuart (2016) Secret diplomacy : concepts, contexts and cases , Routledge
Holmes, Marcus (2013) “The Force of Face-to-Face Diplomacy: Mirror Neurons and the Problem of Intentions”. International Organization, Vol. 67, No. 4.
Jones, Peter (2013) Non-state actors who bring nations closer, http://www. thehindu. com/ opinion/lead/nonstate-actors-who‌bring-nations-closer/ article4 2 73 803. ece.
Jones, Peter (2015) The Future of Track Two Diplomacy, available on: http://globalbrief.ca/blog/2015/10/06/the-future-of-track-two-diplomacy/
Jones, Peter (2008) Filling Critical Gap, or Just Wasting Time? Track Two Diplomacy and regional Security in The Middle East. Disarmament Forum.
Katz, Friedrich (1981) The Secret War in Mexico: Europe, the United States, and the Mexican Revolution, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Kelman, Herbert C. (2000) The Role of the Scholar-Practitioner in International Conflict Resolution, International Studies Perspectives, Vol. I, No. 3.
Kissinger, Henry (1994) Diplomacy, New York: Simon & Schuster.
Kydd, Andrew and Barbara Walter (2002) “Sabotaging the peace: The politics of extremist violence.” International Organization, Vol. 56, No. 2.
Leguey-Feilleuzx, J. R (2009) The Dynamics of Diplomacy, London: Lynne Rienner.
Mapendere, J. (2000) Consequential Conflict Transformation Model, and the Complementarity of Track One, Track One and a Half, and Track Two Diplomacy, The Carter Center.
Mapendere, Jeffrey (2001) Defining Track.One and a Half Diplomacy: it's Complementarity and the Analysis of Factors That Facilitate Its Success, A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master Of Arts, Royal Roads University
Mapendere, Jeffrey (2005) "Track One and a Half Diplomacy and the Complementarity of Tracks", Culture of Peace Online Journal, Vol. 2, No. I.
Mapendere, Jeffrey (2006) Track One and a Half Diplomacy and the Complementarity of Tracks. Culture of Peace Online Journal, Vol. 2, No. 1.
Meerts, Paul Willem (2015) Diplomatic negotiation : essence and evolution, Department of Public International Law, Faculty of Law, Leiden University. Montville, J. (1991) Track Two Diplomacy: The Arrow and the Olive Branch: A case for Track Two Diplomacy, In: V. D. Volkan M.D., J. Montville, & D. A. Julius (Eds.), The Psychodynamics of International Relations: Vol. 2.
Nan, Susan Allen & Strimling, Andrea. (2004) Track I -Track II Cooperation, http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/track-1-2-cooperation. 7.9.2016.
Nan, Susan Allen (2003) Track I Diplomacy, http://www. beyondintractabi lity. org/ essay/track 1 diplomacy/
Nan, Susan Allen (2005) Track one-and-a-Half Diplomacy: Contributions to Georgia-South Ossetian Peacemaking, In: R. J. Fisher (Ed.), Paving the Way, Lanham: Lexington Books.
Otte, T. G. (1998) “Harold Nicolson and Diplomatic Theory: Between Old Diplomacy and New”, In: Discussion Papers 44 , Diplomatic Studies Programme. Leicester: Centre for the Study of Diplomacy.
Oxford Dictionary, s.v. “Transparency,” http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/ american_english/transparent.
Priest, Dana & Arkin, William M (2011) Top Secret America: The Rise Of The New American Security State, New York: Little, Brown and Company
Putnam, Robert D (1988) Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games. International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 3.
Reinsch, Paul Samuel (1922) Secret Diplomacy, How Far can it be Eliminated? New York: Harcourt.
Saaty, Thomas L (2005) Theory and Applications of the Analytic Network Process: Decision Making with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: RWS Publications
Sanders, H.H. (1991) Officials and citizens in international relations, In: V. D. Volkan M.D., J. Montville, & D. A. Julius (Eds.), The Psychodynamics of International Relations: Vol. 2.
Schoenfeld, Gabriel (2010) Necessary Secrets: National Security, The Media And The Rule Of Law , Newyork, William Warder Norton
Schultz, Kenneth) 2005( “The Politics of Risking Peace: Do Hawks or Doves Deliver the Olive Branch?” International Organization, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Soldatos, Panayotis (1990) An Explanatory Framework for the Study of Federal States as Foreign-policy Actors, In: Hans Michelmann, Federalism and International Relations: the Role of Subnational Units, Oxford. Claredon Press, 1990.
Stain, W. K. & Lewis, W. S. (1996) Mediation in the Middle East, In: C. A. Crocker, F. 0. Hampson & P. Aall (Ed), Managing global chaos: Sources of and Responses to international conflict, Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace.
Stasavage, David (2004) “Open-door or closed-door? Transparency in domestic and international bargaining” International Organization, Vol. 58, No. 4.
Volkan, D.V. (1991) Official and unofficial diplomacy: An overview, In: V. D. Volkan M.D., J. Montville, & D. A. Julius, The Psychodynamics of International Relations: Vol. 2.
Wicquefort, Abraham (2004) “The Embassador and his Functions”, In: Geoff Berridge, Diplomatic Classics: Selected Texts from Commynes to Vattel, Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Yarhi-Milo, Keren & Yin, George (2016) Can You Keep a Secret? Reputation and Secret Diplomacy in World Politics, https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/kyarhi/files/secrecy.8.16.2017.pdf
Ziegler, W.D. (1984) War, Peace, and International Politics, Boston: Little, Brown and Company.
Zuckerman, M. J. (2005) Track II Diplomacy: Can “Unofficial” Talks Avert Disaster?, Track Two  Diplomacy: Averting Disaster, Carnegie Reporter, Vol.3, No. 3.