This article tries to evaluate some prediction modles of intelligence agencies on political instability, and explain their failure in predicting recent Middle East developments. Author, in his hypothesis, claims that quantitative prediction modles of intelligence agencies because of reliance on correlation rather than causation, and lack of adequate knowledge of their cases, has a limited capability for prediction. To evaluate his hypothesis, author describes quantitative modle’s prediction of Middle East developments and then compares it with his own qualitative model’s prediction.
Mohammadilord, A. (2012). Strengthening prediction in intelligence analysis: case study of political instability in Middle East. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 15(56), 91-118.
MLA
Abdolmahmod Mohammadilord. "Strengthening prediction in intelligence analysis: case study of political instability in Middle East". Strategic Studies Quarterly, 15, 56, 2012, 91-118.
HARVARD
Mohammadilord, A. (2012). 'Strengthening prediction in intelligence analysis: case study of political instability in Middle East', Strategic Studies Quarterly, 15(56), pp. 91-118.
VANCOUVER
Mohammadilord, A. Strengthening prediction in intelligence analysis: case study of political instability in Middle East. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 2012; 15(56): 91-118.
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