Strategic Studies Quarterly

Abstract  
 
Introduction
The southern parts of Kerman Province represent a strategically important and semi-border area that faces long-standing security challenges. Its proximity to Afghanistan and Pakistan, along with its considerable distance from the provincial capital, has contributed to persistent instability. The roots of insecurity in this region lie largely in internal issues—such as weak local governance, the center–periphery divide, the spread of illegal networks, and the dominance of the shadow economy—rather than in purely external threats.
Therefore, security in southern Kerman is multidimensional and deeply interconnected, where political, military, social, and economic factors overlap and cannot easily be separated.
 
Methodology
This study adopts a qualitative and structural approach within a systemic analytical framework. The MICMAC method (Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification) was used to identify key variables and map their interrelations.
The research sample included 50 local elites, such as governors, judges, journalists, and social–political activists. Participants were selected through purposeful sampling and theoretical saturation to ensure comprehensive and reliable data.
 
Findings and Discussion
1. Driving Variables

The penetration of local political groups into the informal and smuggling-based economy
The instrumental use of local forces within smuggling-related security structures
The normalization of violence due to the widespread use of illegal weapons
The interaction of military personnel with organized crime networks
The outmigration of elites and recruitment of youth into informal groups

2. Dependent Variables

High sensitivity to national security reforms and policies
The dual and sometimes conflicting roles of military and police forces
The significant influence of tribal leaders and ethnic elites in local governance

3. Independent Variables

Lack of strong local political parties and legal channels for participation
Public distrust toward security and judicial institutions
Limited political awareness among local elites

4. Regulatory Variables

Weak representation at the national political level
Elections used as tools to legitimize corrupt structures
Ethnic grievances and structural discrimination
Unequal distribution of political and security resources

 
Conclusion
Reforming the political–military security structure in southern Kerman requires comprehensive change across political, security, social and cultural dimensions. Sustainable stability depends on institutional coherence and transparency, active participation of citizens and local elites, rebuilding judicial and security institutions, and reducing the influence of informal networks and black-market economies.
MICMAC analysis reveals that the region’s security system is structurally unstable, characterized by complex, nonlinear relationships among variables. This instability is marked by:

Multidirectional and intersecting linkages—for example, between smuggling networks, political institutions, and security corruption—that defy linear policy solutions.
High centralization and interdependence—changes in one variable can trigger unpredictable chain reactions across the system.
Absence of stabilizing variables, making reform efforts difficult and requiring a holistic, system-wide approach.

According to MICMAC rankings, the three most influential drivers of instability are:

Penetration of local political actors into smuggling networks (Score: 490) – linking formal institutions with fuel and drug trafficking mafias, forming the nucleus of systemic corruption.
Instrumental use of local security forces by smuggling groups (Score: 459) – transforming local actors into enforcers of informal order, eroding social cohesion.
Normalization of violence and proliferation of illegal arms (Score: 440) – embedding violence into daily life and creating a culture of fear that undermines human security.

The most vulnerable dependent variables under these unstable conditions are:

Infiltration of official intelligence systems by corruption (Score: 477)
Dual and conflicting roles of security and military forces (Score: 440)
Mismatch between national security policy and border realities (Score: 428) – particularly due to the influx of undocumented migrants from the eastern borders.

Overall, these findings point to a systemic failure of formal institutions to fulfill their core functions, leaving southern Kerman exposed to threats from informal networks and illegal cross-border activities.

Abstract Introduction
The quest for establishing and preserving peace has been a constant in human societies, giving rise to a multitude of theories and viewpoints. Among these, Norwegian peace researcher Johan Galtung introduced a novel perspective on the concept of peace in 1969, challenging the modern definitions. He argued that peace extends beyond the mere absence of war. Instead, it requires the eradication of all forms of violence and the establishment of enduring peace through the creation of new societal and political institutions, attitudes, and structures.
Galtung distinguished between two types of peace: negative and positive. Negative peace, he explained, is focused on preserving peace through diplomatic means. On the other hand, positive peace is about building non-exploitative social structures, irrespective of the likelihood of war. Thus, while negative peace is about upholding the status quo, positive peace aims toward the formation of new structures, which are the outcome of peaceful interactions among individuals and the management of their differences with due regard to the legitimate needs and interests of everyone involved in important matters.
Given the extensive body of Galtung’s work and the wide range of his views, this paper attempts to answer the question, “What are the key elements of achieving positive peace in Galtung’s thought?” Furthermore, we seek to develop a conceptual model that explores the potential intellectual foundations for achieving positive peace as perceived by other scholars.
Methodology
This study, devoid of any preconceived hypothesis, aims to uncover and elucidate a pattern of relationships among the conceptual elements that constitute positive peace in Galtung’s thought. The research is qualitative, exploratory, and employs a descriptive-analytical approach. Initially, Galtung’s works are examined in the context of positive peace using a document analysis method, which is part of a targeted descriptive study. Subsequently, an effort is made to pinpoint the crucial conceptual elements for achieving this kind of peace using an analogy method grounded in logical reasoning. Finally, a conceptual model is suggested by forming a logical linkage among these elements.
Result and Discussion
The research findings show that Galtung, through his unique approach to peace, posits that the objective of peace is not merely to halt war, but also to unify human society by eradicating the roots of structural violence. In fact, he advocates for the development of harmonious and peaceful relationships that integrate the economy, identity, and various groups within society.
Within the context of Galtung’s positive peace theory, social harmony cannot be achieved unless a country’s domestic policies address the growing human needs. Without this, the international environment could also become more tense. Thus, by drawing parallels between peacemaking/peace stabilization and the health approaches in disease prevention and treatment, he divides the concept of peace into two types: positive and negative.
Galtung proposes at least two therapeutic interventions in the realm of peace: firstly, the remedial measures of negative peace aimed at eradicating violence, and secondly, the preventive measures of positive peace intended to avert the onset of violence. In this context, negative peace underscores the importance of diplomatic peacekeeping initiatives, while positive peace (even in the face of unlikely warfare) concentrates on fostering peace and creating non-exploitative societal structures.
Thus, the causes of war should not be solely attributed to the actions of individual or group decision-makers. Instead, the objectives of peace influence a multitude of issues that hinge on fulfilling basic human needs and enhancing the quality of life. In this regard, Galtung advances two topics in parallel. Firstly, he identifies four types of societal relationships - positive harmony, negative harmony, disharmony, and neutrality - and assesses the achievement of positive peace based on the outcomes of these relationships. Secondly, he examines the dynamics of violence and underscores the need to replace the “good” with the “evil”.
In summary, this paper strives to draw logical connections among various themes in Galtung’s pacifist thoughts. The concluding remarks suggest that the resolution of structural contradictions, such as exploitation, colonialism/imperialism, discrimination, and poverty, should go hand in hand with corrective efforts to transform violent structures. This transformation requires the collective participation of all society members to shape their own future and to institute political equality and economic justice. Ultimately, if these efforts lead to the establishment of positive harmony and foster a sense of unity within society, then the goal of achieving positive peace will be realized.