Strategic Studies Quarterly

Abstract Introduction
Despite high expectations, the attempts of Saudi Arabia and Israel to forge political and diplomatic ties reached an impasse. The two countries, which had employed secret diplomacy for a decade to effect this change, were unable to leverage the potential inherent in such diplomacy to succeed and formalize relations. This paper primarily investigates the causes of this failure. The central hypothesis posits that while this issue is partly linked to the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October 2023, the principal reason pertains to the unique process of “secret diplomacy”.
The secret diplomatic efforts between Riyadh and Tel Aviv not only fell short of achieving the outcomes both parties sought, but were also destined to fail from the outset due to the absence of a clear strategy, their one-sided approach, Israel’s anti-diplomacy style, Saudi Arabia's deceptive diplomacy, and finally, the inconsistency in the United States' foreign policy. This paper aims to elucidate the reasons for this failure by employing a historical analysis method, focusing on the nature of the past secret diplomacy between the two countries.
 
Methodology
The methodology of this paper is based on historical analysis, meaning that we will scrutinize the current and future state of secret diplomacy between Saudi Arabia and Israel, drawing on the historical trajectory of each actor’s secret diplomacy. Given that their secret diplomatic interactions are ongoing, the most critical data and rationale for assessment lie in their past behavior in previous instances of secret diplomacy.
 
Result and Discussion
Based on the results of this study, the factors shaping secret diplomacy between Israel and Saudi Arabia are the following:

Countering Iran’s influence in the Middle East
The preparedness of the United States to withdraw from the Middle East or diminish its military footprint in the region
The inability of the United States to effectively counter Iran on nuclear and regional matters
The interest of the United States in a significant compromise in the Middle East due to security considerations and its internal political issues
The escalating aspirations of Turkey
The mutual economic interests of both Israel and Saudi Arabia

The factors contributing to the unsuccessful secret diplomacy between Riyadh and Tel Aviv, encompassing Saudi Arabia’s domestic issues, its bilateral ties with Israel, and its relations with other countries, are outlined as follows:

Excessive prolongation of negotiations (bilateral relations with Israel)
Internal political shifts within the United States (third parties)
Saudi Arabia’s substantial expectations from the United States in military, nuclear, and security aspects (third parties)
The Israeli anti-diplomatic stance and lack of flexibility on the issue of Palestine (bilateral relations with Israel)
The widespread impact of the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on the Arab world and Saudi society (Saudi domestic issues)
Saudi Arabia’s observation of Israel’s vulnerability and subsequent adjustments (third parties)
The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran with the mediation of China and stopping the war in Yemen (third parties)
The enhancement of relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, along with Saudi Arabia’s reconciliation with Qatar (third parties)
The absence of a roadmap for secret diplomacy (bilateral relations with Israel)
Recognition of the high and negative costs associated with establishing formal relations with Israel in the aftermath of the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood (Saudi domestic issues).

In summary, it can be said that Saudi Arabia continues to pursue the establishment of formal political ties with Israel. However, this necessitates a more flexible stance from Tel Aviv and a departure from its anti-diplomatic approach, and political shifts within the United States. Saudi Arabia is willing to make concessions, provided that the U.S. government aligns with Riyadh’s interests and ensures the desired demands are met.

Abstract Intelligence organizations, with their expertise and experience in clandestine and covert actions, are a crucial channel for establishing secret diplomacy between countries. This helps guide and reassure politicians and diplomats. The goal of secret diplomacy is to assess the true intentions of other countries and create a conducive environment for establishing official diplomatic relations and future cooperation. Understanding the real intentions of the other parties, particularly their reliability, is a key application of secret diplomacy. This links intelligence and diplomacy together, based on the necessity of measuring reliability, without the intelligence agency monopolizing this task. However, the primary research question is: what is the relationship between intelligence and diplomacy, and how and when does secret diplomacy promote cooperation and trust between competitors? The hypothesis is that intelligence and diplomacy have a two-way and mutual relationship and intelligence-security organizations play a role in interacting with the diplomatic apparatus through secret diplomacy to discover the real intentions of the negotiating party/parties. The results indicate that the continuation of secret cooperation depends on the long-term interests of cooperation outweighing the benefits of intelligence disclosure. The research method is descriptive-explanatory in nature and employs a qualitative methodology based on the type of data. Data collection techniques include library research, internet research, objective observations, and field studies.
 

Abstract Secrecy in diplomatic relations can be both necessary and dangerous at the same time. In the Westphalian system, the concept of secrecy has become a standard and largely legitimate form of diplomatic action by reference to national security needs. On the other hand, with the recent developments in the concept of sovereignty in the domestic and international arenas, the development of such communications, the concept of transparency has been taken into consideration as one of the main elements of national security and has given rise to a concept called the transparency-Secrecy paradox. The basis of this paradox is that secrecy in diplomatic negotiations, justified by national security, could ultimately, and simultaneously, seriously undermine the credibility of governments, and therefore undermine national security. This paper reaches to the most important variables that influence the optimal level of secrecy using multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis modeling. This level of secrecy must at the same time ensure the effectiveness of diplomatic relations, while minimizing the risk to the credibility of the governments applying these methods. In the end, it is shown what pattern of diplomatic negotiations can provide this optimal level of secrecy when some of these variables are prioritized.