Strategic Studies Quarterly

Abstract Elite migration constitutes a structural challenge for developing nations, and Iran is no exception, entailing profound implications for economic performance, social cohesion, and national security. This study sets out to structurally analyze the determinants shaping elite migration and to outline prospective scenarios for its future trajectory. Employing Parag Khanna's connectography as its theoretical foundation, the research adopts a foresight-oriented methodology. The inquiry is driven by the following question: which structural variables most critically influence Iran's elite migration outlook, and how might the resulting scenarios be managed to reinforce national security? A mixed-methods approach was adopted, comprising three phases: an extensive literature review to extract relevant factors, a cross-impact analysis conducted via MICMAC software, and scenario construction based on the GBN (Global Business Network) framework. The structural diagnostics pinpoint "governance and institutional capacity" and "global flows" as the primary driving forces. The interplay of these two variables yields four distinct plausible scenarios for the future of elite migration: active talent circulation, connected brain drain, endogenous and sustainable development, and talent stagnation and isolation. The findings further contend that a viable strategy for navigating this issue hinges on deep-seated reforms in governance, fostering substantive linkages with global scientific and technological networks, and advancing toward a knowledge-driven economy. In doing so, the paper emphasizes the necessity of supplanting reductionist, single-factor perspectives with a systemic and networked framework for policymaking in this arena.

Abstract In the past, there was a one-sided view based on the deterrence strategy towards the migration of specialists, but today, the return of specialists to their homeland in the form of various channels, including entrepreneurial return, is on the agenda of governments. This research was conducted with the aim of identifying the factors influencing the entrepreneurial return of Iranian Elites abroad, using a survey method. The statistical population of the research consists of 217 elites and graduates who have returned to the country and started their own businesses through a cooperation plan with non-resident Iranian specialists and scientists. The results of the questionnaire indicate that nine factors have an effect on the entrepreneurial return of Iranian professionals and graduates, which in order of importance are: access to personal and family networks, a sense of duty towards the mother country, lower costs of starting a business, entrepreneurial opportunities, the state of the entrepreneurship ecosystem, access to scientific and governmental networks, the general state of the country, the government's incentive programs and policies, and the challenges of immigrants in the host country.