Strategic Studies Quarterly

Abstract Elite migration constitutes a structural challenge for developing nations, and Iran is no exception, entailing profound implications for economic performance, social cohesion, and national security. This study sets out to structurally analyze the determinants shaping elite migration and to outline prospective scenarios for its future trajectory. Employing Parag Khanna's connectography as its theoretical foundation, the research adopts a foresight-oriented methodology. The inquiry is driven by the following question: which structural variables most critically influence Iran's elite migration outlook, and how might the resulting scenarios be managed to reinforce national security? A mixed-methods approach was adopted, comprising three phases: an extensive literature review to extract relevant factors, a cross-impact analysis conducted via MICMAC software, and scenario construction based on the GBN (Global Business Network) framework. The structural diagnostics pinpoint "governance and institutional capacity" and "global flows" as the primary driving forces. The interplay of these two variables yields four distinct plausible scenarios for the future of elite migration: active talent circulation, connected brain drain, endogenous and sustainable development, and talent stagnation and isolation. The findings further contend that a viable strategy for navigating this issue hinges on deep-seated reforms in governance, fostering substantive linkages with global scientific and technological networks, and advancing toward a knowledge-driven economy. In doing so, the paper emphasizes the necessity of supplanting reductionist, single-factor perspectives with a systemic and networked framework for policymaking in this arena.

Abstract Good governance follows a series of common and universal principles and procedures that do not depend on a specific geographical environment or time period, but a significant part of governance principles and procedures are always influenced by environmental considerations and depend on time conditions. And it is a special place. Based on this, efficient and desirable governance in a smaller scale like Tehran province requires the investigation of special and unique elements and components of this province. With this assumption, this article examines and analyzes the issues and challenges of local governance in Tehran province. For this purpose, first, by using open interviews with experts and executive officials of the province, issues and challenges are extracted, and then structural analysis of these issues and challenges is carried out using MicMac software. The results and findings indicate that the governance issues and challenges of Tehran province are caused by the four circles of "inefficiency", "dissatisfaction", "deprivation" and "insecurity", which are created by the government rather than the people playing a role in them, and therefore to solve them all, the rules of national and provincial governance should be amended by reducing the role of the government in economic, social, cultural and even political affairs.

Abstract  
This article seeks to determine the most important factors that could influence the prospects of Kurdish independence in Iraq in the next decade and to present possible scenarios. To this end, a structural analysis was conducted to determine the major factors as well as the extent of their influence and how much they can be influenced by other factors in a macro-system. The findings of the research have been presented and explained in different sections. The study shows that the support received, international approaches, competitions, and the attitude of the actors involved are, in descending order, the most important factors in the issue of Kurdish independence. The power and cohesion of the central government and differences or strategic cohesion of the Kurds are two key uncertainties shaping the scenarios of Kurdish independence. Four scenarios for Kurdish independence have been presented in this article.