Research Institute of Strategic Studies (RISS) Strategic Studies Quarterly 1735-0727 15 56 2012 09 01 Strengthening prediction in intelligence analysis: case study of political instability in Middle East Strengthening prediction in intelligence analysis: case study of political instability in Middle East 91 118 2410 FA Abdolmahmod Mohammadilord Journal Article 2012 05 24 This article tries to evaluate some prediction modles of intelligence agencies on political instability, and explain their failure in predicting recent Middle East developments. Author, in his hypothesis, claims that quantitative prediction modles of intelligence agencies because of reliance on correlation rather than causation, and lack of adequate knowledge of their cases, has a limited capability for prediction. To evaluate his hypothesis, author describes quantitative modle’s prediction of Middle East developments and then compares it with his own qualitative model’s prediction. This article tries to evaluate some prediction modles of intelligence agencies on political instability, and explain their failure in predicting recent Middle East developments. Author, in his hypothesis, claims that quantitative prediction modles of intelligence agencies because of reliance on correlation rather than causation, and lack of adequate knowledge of their cases, has a limited capability for prediction. To evaluate his hypothesis, author describes quantitative modle’s prediction of Middle East developments and then compares it with his own qualitative model’s prediction. https://quarterly.risstudies.org/article_2410_a6ea8471c120fe8cc35a2954c9b9c595.pdf