Research Institute of Strategic Studies (RISS) Strategic Studies Quarterly 1735-0727 Articles in Press 2026 08 05 Future Scenarios for Elite Migration and a Structural Analysis of the Influencing Factors Based on Parag Khanna's Theory of Connectography Future Scenarios for Elite Migration and a Structural Analysis of the Influencing Factors Based on Parag Khanna's Theory of Connectography 250239 10.22034/ssq.2026.549611.4323 FA Mohammad Javad Ghasemian Nick Faculty member of the Research Institute for Security and Development Studies. Tehran, Iran. 0009-0003-5720-8347 Journal Article 2025 09 27 Elite migration constitutes a structural challenge for developing nations, and Iran is no exception, entailing profound implications for economic performance, social cohesion, and national security. This study sets out to structurally analyze the determinants shaping elite migration and to outline prospective scenarios for its future trajectory. Employing Parag Khanna's connectography as its theoretical foundation, the research adopts a foresight-oriented methodology. The inquiry is driven by the following question: which structural variables most critically influence Iran's elite migration outlook, and how might the resulting scenarios be managed to reinforce national security? A mixed-methods approach was adopted, comprising three phases: an extensive literature review to extract relevant factors, a cross-impact analysis conducted via MICMAC software, and scenario construction based on the GBN (Global Business Network) framework. The structural diagnostics pinpoint "governance and institutional capacity" and "global flows" as the primary driving forces. The interplay of these two variables yields four distinct plausible scenarios for the future of elite migration: active talent circulation, connected brain drain, endogenous and sustainable development, and talent stagnation and isolation. The findings further contend that a viable strategy for navigating this issue hinges on deep-seated reforms in governance, fostering substantive linkages with global scientific and technological networks, and advancing toward a knowledge-driven economy. In doing so, the paper emphasizes the necessity of supplanting reductionist, single-factor perspectives with a systemic and networked framework for policymaking in this arena. Elite migration constitutes a structural challenge for developing nations, and Iran is no exception, entailing profound implications for economic performance, social cohesion, and national security. This study sets out to structurally analyze the determinants shaping elite migration and to outline prospective scenarios for its future trajectory. Employing Parag Khanna's connectography as its theoretical foundation, the research adopts a foresight-oriented methodology. The inquiry is driven by the following question: which structural variables most critically influence Iran's elite migration outlook, and how might the resulting scenarios be managed to reinforce national security? A mixed-methods approach was adopted, comprising three phases: an extensive literature review to extract relevant factors, a cross-impact analysis conducted via MICMAC software, and scenario construction based on the GBN (Global Business Network) framework. The structural diagnostics pinpoint "governance and institutional capacity" and "global flows" as the primary driving forces. The interplay of these two variables yields four distinct plausible scenarios for the future of elite migration: active talent circulation, connected brain drain, endogenous and sustainable development, and talent stagnation and isolation. The findings further contend that a viable strategy for navigating this issue hinges on deep-seated reforms in governance, fostering substantive linkages with global scientific and technological networks, and advancing toward a knowledge-driven economy. In doing so, the paper emphasizes the necessity of supplanting reductionist, single-factor perspectives with a systemic and networked framework for policymaking in this arena.