پژوهشگاه مطالعات امنیت و پیشرفت فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی 1735-0727 28 2 2025 08 23 The Role of Political Parties in Shaping Policy-Making and National Visions: Challenges and Vulnerabilities in Iran نقش احزاب سیاسی در طراحی فرایندهای سیاست‌گذاری و چشم‌اندازهای ملی: چالش‌ها و آسیب‌ها در ایران 233483 10.22034/ssq.2025.512003.4260 FA عاطفه مرادی اسلامی دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه تهران،اندیشکده حکمرانی شریف، تهران، ایران. 0000-0002-8030-835X محمدهادی راجی گروه حکمرانی سیاسی و اجرایی، پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی، پژوهشگاه مطالعات امنیت و پیشرفت، تهران، ایران. 0000-0002-1742-8922 Journal Article 2025 03 11 <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Introduction <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Political parties and electoral systems are among the core institutions that shape governance and political development. They play a central role in political socialization, elite organization, public participation, and the overall policy-making process. By creating policy discourses and linking political elites with the wider public, parties can foster policy learning, strengthen the rationality of governance, and contribute to the formation of coherent national visions. In contrast, electoral systems, as mechanisms for power circulation and legitimacy renewal, enable fair competition and the presentation of alternative governance ideas. <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Despite the presence of formal party and electoral structures in Iran, weak institutionalization, populist tendencies, lack of organizational cohesion, absence of party culture, and unstable electoral laws have prevented political parties from becoming effective actors in policy-making and national planning. The study asks why Iranian political parties have failed to act as learning and mediating institutions that generate sustainable, vision-driven policies, and what structural obstacles have constrained their performance. <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">A historical overview of Iranian parties shows that since the early post-revolution years, their capacity for discourse formation and doctrine development has steadily declined. Short-term electoral rivalries and populist slogans have replaced long-term policy thinking. This shift has widened the gap between policy-making institutions and society, weakening representation, policy accumulation, and the creation of shared national visions. The paper therefore argues that reforming Iran’s party and electoral systems is a prerequisite for better governance and more effective national policy-making. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Methodology <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">This study adopts a qualitative, descriptive–analytical approach based on documentary and library research. It reviews theoretical sources, legal documents, and comparative experiences to assess the role of political parties in designing and guiding policy processes. The research is exploratory rather than hypothesis-testing. <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">The theoretical framework rests on three interrelated components—political discourse formation, political marketing, and policy accumulation—which together form a “functional triangle of political parties.” This model explains how parties can promote national visions by creating and communicating policy discourses, marketing their programs within electoral systems, and ensuring continuity in pursuing long-term policies. The concept of policy entrepreneurship is also used to highlight the innovative role of parties in developing and implementing governance ideas. <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Data were analyzed through two main steps: (1) tracing the historical and discursive evolution of parties in Iran from the 1970s onward, and (2) comparing party and electoral systems in countries that have successfully maintained coherent national visions. Using institutional and comparative analysis, the study identifies the main sources of dysfunction in Iran’s party system and proposes directions for reform. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Findings and Discussion <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">In developed political systems, parties act as key intermediaries and learning organizations that drive the formulation and implementation of stable policies. In Iran, however, weak institutional foundations and insufficient accumulative infrastructure have undermined such a role. Iranian parties face serious limitations in all three functional areas: discourse formation, political marketing, and policy accumulation. <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">In discourse formation, personality-based politics, lack of policy training, and weak connections between intellectual elites and party organizations have prevented the generation of lasting governance ideas. In political marketing, elections are dominated by broad, populist slogans rather than evidence-based programs. In policy accumulation, the absence of continuity and coherence in pursuing policies has blocked learning cycles and the systematic transfer of experience in national policy-making. <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">The country’s legal and institutional frameworks also fail to support party development. The lack of a comprehensive party law, weak financial oversight, poor linkages between parties and parliament, and overreliance on individual politicians have reduced parties to temporary electoral vehicles rather than stable policy institutions. Declining public trust and legitimacy have further weakened the organic connection between society and elites, eroding parties’ ability to inspire hope and articulate shared futures. <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Comparative evidence from Germany, India, and China indicates that idea-driven, coherent, and consultative party systems—characterized by sustained interaction between parties and the state—are most capable of producing vision-driven policies. Fragmented systems lacking institutional accumulation, by contrast, struggle to build stable national visions. In Iran, the weakness of political parties not only hampers participatory policy-making but also diminishes the nation’s “political capital of hope.” <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Conclusion <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">The analysis shows that Iranian political parties, constrained by structural weaknesses, inadequate legislation, personality-centered politics, and short-term electoral goals, have been unable to contribute effectively to policy-making or the shaping of national vision. As a result, the policy process has become fragmented, reactive, and largely detached from long-term learning and participation. <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Revitalizing the role of parties requires action in three areas: <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: FA;">1<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">. Institutionalizing party culture through civic and political education; <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: FA;">2<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">. Reforming the electoral system to enhance transparency, competition, and accountability; and <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: FA;">3<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">. Strengthening the legal and institutional status of parties within the governance framework. <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Parties must also reclaim their capacity to generate vision-driven policies grounded in national discourses and collective rationality. Continuous interaction among policy-makers, academics, and civil society can raise the quality of policy-making and rebuild political hope. Ultimately, without a restructured party and electoral system, effective governance, sustainable development, and a coherent national future will remain out of reach. Political parties can become genuine producers of national vision only when they move beyond short-term electoral competition and act as central actors in learning, decision-making, and the creation of development-oriented policy discourses. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-bidi-language: FA;">احزاب سیاسی و نظام انتخاباتی دو رکن بنیادین در معماری نهادی هر نظام سیاسی محسوب می‌شوند که نقشی کلیدی در جامعه‌پذیری سیاسی، نهادینه‌سازی مشارکت سازمان‌یافته و شکل‌دهی به فرایندهای سیاست‌گذاری ملی ایفا می‌کنند. احزاب از طریق تولید گفتمان‌های سیاستی، تربیت کادر تخصصی و ایجاد پل ارتباطی میان نخبگان و توده‌ها، می‌توانند به انباشت سیاستی و ترسیم چشم‌اندازهای ملی کمک کنند. از سوی دیگر، نظام انتخاباتی به‌عنوان سازوکار انتقال قدرت و بازتولید مشروعیت سیاسی، نقش تعیین‌کننده‌ای در فراهم‌سازی زمینه‌های رقابت سالم، عرضه ایده‌های حکمرانی و خلق آینده مشترک دارد. مقاله حاضر با رویکردی توصیفی- تحلیلی، به بررسی نقش احزاب سیاسی در طراحی فرایندهای سیاست‌گذاری و چشم‌اندازهای ملی می‌پردازد و در ضمن این بررسی تلاش دارد تا چالش‌ها و آسیب‌های این فرایند را در ایران موردتوجه قرار دهد؛ ازاین‌رو پرسش اصلی مقاله آن است که نقش و کارکرد احزاب سیاسی در طراحی فرایندهای سیاست‌گذاری و چشم‌انداز ملی چیست و این مهم با چه چالش‌ها و آسیب‌هایی در ایران مواجه است؟ مقاله حاضر از حیث نوع، کیفی محسوب می‌شود و داده‌های آن با استفاده از روش اسنادی و کتابخانه‌ای جمع‌آوری شده است. لازم به ذکر است این پژوهش، اکتشافی بوده و فرضیه‌آزما نیست. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که احزاب به‌مثابه یک نهاد زمانی و واسطه‌ای قابلیت انباشت یادگیری، طراحی سیاست مشارکتی و خلق چرخه سیاستی را بر عهده دارند. از سوی دیگر فقدان انباشت زمانی و انسجام نهادی، ضعف قوانین حمایتی، غلبه توده‌گرایی و ناپایداری سازوکارهای انتخاباتی، از عوامل اصلی ناکارآمدی تحزب و اختلال در فرایند سیاست‌گذاری آینده‌محور در کشور به شمار می‌روند. این وضعیت ضرورت بازآرایی در نظام حزبی و انتخاباتی را در راستای بهبود حکمرانی ملی آشکار می‌سازد.

https://quarterly.risstudies.org/article_233483_bca898a91e02d0e24f5675ef5f42efa1.pdf

پژوهشگاه مطالعات امنیت و پیشرفت فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی 1735-0727 28 2 2025 08 23 Analyzing Physical Factors Enhancing Women’s Sustainable Safety in Public Urban Spaces of Informal Settlements: The Case of the Harandi Neighborhood تحلیل ابعاد کالبدی مؤثر بر ارتقای امنیت پایدار زنان در فضاهای عمومی شهری سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی (مطالعه موردی: محله هرندی) 231860 10.22034/ssq.2025.536588.4294 FA علی زینالی عظیم پژوهشگر پسادکترای طراحی شهری، دانشکده فنی مهندسی شهرسازی و معماری، دانشگاه تربیت دبیر شهید رجایی، تهران، ایران. 0000-0001-5486-8452 مصطفی بصیری گروه معماری و شهرسازی، واحد ایلخچی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ایلخچی، ایران 0000-0002-0100-8931 فرزاد زربخش گروه معماری، واحد اردبیل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اردبیل، ایران. 0000-0002-5442-8585 آیدا مصطفی زاده بازرگان دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه معماری، موسسه آموزش عالی غیرانتفاعی رشدیه، تبریز، ایران. 0009-0007-9955-2444 Journal Article 2025 07 23 Introduction Degraded urban areas in Iran—particularly in Tehran—represent some of the most complex urban challenges. These neighborhoods are marked by physical decay, poor infrastructure, overcrowding, and fragmented spatial organization, which have led to declining living standards and rising social problems. The Harandi neighborhood in Tehran’s District 12 exemplifies this condition. Despite its historical background and central location, Harandi has undergone significant physical and social decline over recent decades and is now considered one of the most insecure areas in the city. Narrow alleys, irregular street patterns, poor lighting, abandoned buildings, and neglected open spaces—combined with concentrated social issues—have made the neighborhood feel unsafe, especially for women who tend to be more sensitive to environmental cues. Women living in or passing through Harandi often encounter spaces that lack visibility, environmental control, and a sense of comfort. This reduces their willingness to be present in public areas, reinforcing both spatial self-restriction and gender inequality. Despite repeated urban regeneration initiatives, the role of physical design in shaping women’s perceptions of safety has received little systematic attention. This study takes Harandi as a case study to examine how physical and environmental features—such as lighting, pathway connectivity, visibility, land-use diversity, and maintenance—affect women’s sustainable sense of safety in public urban spaces. Methodology The study adopts a quantitative, field-based approach to explore how environmental qualities influence women’s perceived safety in one of Tehran’s degraded urban areas. Because the research focuses on women’s lived experiences and environmental perceptions, direct data collection from residents was essential. A survey method using a structured questionnaire was employed. The study population included women residing in Harandi (District 12). According to official data, the neighborhood’s population is about 32,145, of which 12,647 are women. Women aged 18 and older formed the target group. Using the Cochran formula (95% confidence level, 5% margin of error), a sample of 367 participants was determined. Respondents were selected through stratified random sampling to ensure diversity in age and spatial distribution. The questionnaire was developed based on theories in urban safety, environmental psychology, and urban design. It included items measuring lighting quality, street connectivity, visibility, land-use patterns, street furniture, maintenance, and perceived safety—rated on a five-point Likert scale from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree.” After pilot testing and expert review, the instrument’s reliability was confirmed with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.865, indicating high internal consistency. Data analysis included descriptive statistics followed by structural equation modeling (SEM) using SmartPLS software. Model validity was tested through convergent and discriminant validity measures and path coefficients. The results provided a clear and evidence-based understanding of the current situation and helped identify design strategies to improve environmental quality and women’s sense of safety in degraded urban areas. Findings and Discussion The analysis shows that in degraded neighborhoods like Harandi, women’s sustainable safety results from the interaction of physical, functional, and perceptual factors. The most influential dimension was movement structure and accessibility (total effect = 0.49), demonstrating that organized, legible pathways strongly shape women’s feelings of safety. Lighting quality ranked second (effect = 0.38). Sufficient, uniform lighting at night not only improves visibility but also signals social presence and informal surveillance, reducing the likelihood of “blind spots.” Psychological safety ranked third (effect = 0.35), highlighting the importance of mental comfort, sense of control, and collective memory in shaping women’s perception of safety. Environmental maintenance (effect = 0.32) showed that cleanliness and well-kept surfaces are seen as indicators of active urban management and monitoring. Active land uses (effect = 0.29) enhance security by ensuring continuous presence and economic vitality. Street furniture (effect = 0.26) contributes indirectly to safety by increasing comfort and usability. Natural surveillance (effect = 0.24) and spatial legibility (effect = 0.20) also reduce anxiety through visibility and predictability. The components ranked as follows: Pathways and accessibility Lighting Psychological safety Environmental maintenance Active land uses Street furniture Natural surveillance Spatial legibility Conclusion The study concludes that women’s sense of safety in degraded urban areas is a multifaceted phenomenon closely tied to environmental design quality. In Harandi, insecurity is not solely the result of social problems but also of physical decay, poor lighting, spatial fragmentation, and visual disorder. The structural model shows that organized street networks and accessible routes play the most important role in creating sustainable safety. Predictable, connected, and visible spaces give women a stronger sense of control and comfort. Consistent and effective lighting—as a sign of supervision and social presence—was the second key factor. Psychological aspects, such as feelings of comfort and support, also contribute greatly to women’s willingness to be present and active in public spaces. Conversely, poor maintenance, neglected spaces, and unsafe street furniture erode trust and increase anxiety. Overall, the findings emphasize that improving women’s safety in degraded urban fabrics cannot rely solely on policing or surveillance. A holistic approach that integrates physical, environmental, and perceptual dimensions is essential. Sustainable safety is achieved when women can read and navigate their environment, feel visible, and recognize their presence as an integral part of the neighborhood’s social life. امنیت پایدار زنان در فضاهای عمومی، به‌ویژه در سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی، از ارکان بنیادین عدالت فضایی و توسعه انسانی محسوب می‌شود. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل ابعاد کالبدی مؤثر بر ارتقای امنیت پایدار زنان در محله هرندی تهران به‌عنوان نمونه‌ای از سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی شهری انجام شده است. رویکرد پژوهش کمّی، نوع آن کاربردی و روش گردآوری داده‌ها پیمایشی بود. ابزار گردآوری، پرسش‌نامه‌ای محقق‌ساخته بود که با اتکا بر ادبیات نظری در حوزه طراحی شهری، روان‌شناسی محیط و جامعه‌شناسی فضا تهیه شد. جامعه آماری شامل ۸۲۳۱ زن بالای هجده سال ساکن در محله بود. حجم نمونه با استفاده از فرمول کوکران و در سطح اطمینان ۹۵درصد برابر با ۳۶۷ نفر محاسبه شد. نمونه‌گیری به‌صورت تصادفی طبقه‌بندی‌شده و متناسب با پراکنش مکانی و سنی انجام گرفت. روایی سازه‌ای ابزار با استفاده از میانگین واریانس استخراج‌شده و شاخص تمایز مفهومی میان سازه‌ها بررسی شد و پایایی ابزار با ضریب آلفای کرونباخ ۰٫۸۶۵ و پایایی ترکیبی بالای ۰٫۸۰ تأیید شد. برای تحلیل داده‌ها، از مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری بر پایه روش حداقل مربعات جزئی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار تخصصی بهره گرفته شد. یافته‌ها نشان داد که تمامی ابعاد کالبدی مورد بررسی تأثیری مثبت و معنادار بر امنیت پایدار زنان دارند. در این میان، کیفیت مسیر و دسترسی (ضریب مسیر ۰٫۴۲)، احساس روانی امنیت (۰٫۳۹)، روشنایی (۰٫۳۰) و نگهداشت محیط (۰٫۲۷) بیشترین اثر را داشتند. ضریب تعیین امنیت پایدار برابر با ۰٫۷۰۸ و شاخص پیش‌بینی‌پذیری مدل برابر با ۰٫۴۹ بود. این نتایج بیانگر آن است که ارتقای امنیت زنان در سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی مستلزم طراحی فضاهای ادراک‌پذیر، سازمان‌یافته و انسان‌محور است.

https://quarterly.risstudies.org/article_231860_cc1392bf2458ed4790d6196f4b71a9c4.pdf

پژوهشگاه مطالعات امنیت و پیشرفت فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی 1735-0727 28 2 2025 08 23 Structural Analysis of Security Challenges in Southern Kerman Province: A Political–Military Perspective تحلیل ساختاری چالش های امنیتی مناطق جنوبی استان کرمان در بعد سیاسی- نظامی 233450 10.22034/ssq.2025.539833.4300 FA سلمان دست‌افشان دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی ،گروه علوم سیاسی و مطالعات انقلاب اسلامی، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران 0000-0003-2420-7076 علی مرشدی‌زاد عضو هییت علمی گروه علوم سیاسی دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران. 0000-0002-1915-235X پرویز امینی استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی و مطالعات انقلاب اسلامی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران. Journal Article 2025 08 07 Introduction The southern parts of Kerman Province represent a strategically important and semi-border area that faces long-standing security challenges. Its proximity to Afghanistan and Pakistan, along with its considerable distance from the provincial capital, has contributed to persistent instability. The roots of insecurity in this region lie largely in internal issues—such as weak local governance, the center–periphery divide, the spread of illegal networks, and the dominance of the shadow economy—rather than in purely external threats. Therefore, security in southern Kerman is multidimensional and deeply interconnected, where political, military, social, and economic factors overlap and cannot easily be separated. Methodology This study adopts a qualitative and structural approach within a systemic analytical framework. The MICMAC method (Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification) was used to identify key variables and map their interrelations. The research sample included 50 local elites, such as governors, judges, journalists, and social–political activists. Participants were selected through purposeful sampling and theoretical saturation to ensure comprehensive and reliable data. Findings and Discussion 1. Driving Variables The penetration of local political groups into the informal and smuggling-based economy The instrumental use of local forces within smuggling-related security structures The normalization of violence due to the widespread use of illegal weapons The interaction of military personnel with organized crime networks The outmigration of elites and recruitment of youth into informal groups 2. Dependent Variables High sensitivity to national security reforms and policies The dual and sometimes conflicting roles of military and police forces The significant influence of tribal leaders and ethnic elites in local governance 3. Independent Variables Lack of strong local political parties and legal channels for participation Public distrust toward security and judicial institutions Limited political awareness among local elites 4. Regulatory Variables Weak representation at the national political level Elections used as tools to legitimize corrupt structures Ethnic grievances and structural discrimination Unequal distribution of political and security resources Conclusion Reforming the political–military security structure in southern Kerman requires comprehensive change across political, security, social and cultural dimensions. Sustainable stability depends on institutional coherence and transparency, active participation of citizens and local elites, rebuilding judicial and security institutions, and reducing the influence of informal networks and black-market economies. MICMAC analysis reveals that the region’s security system is structurally unstable, characterized by complex, nonlinear relationships among variables. This instability is marked by: Multidirectional and intersecting linkages—for example, between smuggling networks, political institutions, and security corruption—that defy linear policy solutions. High centralization and interdependence—changes in one variable can trigger unpredictable chain reactions across the system. Absence of stabilizing variables, making reform efforts difficult and requiring a holistic, system-wide approach. According to MICMAC rankings, the three most influential drivers of instability are: Penetration of local political actors into smuggling networks (Score: 490) – linking formal institutions with fuel and drug trafficking mafias, forming the nucleus of systemic corruption. Instrumental use of local security forces by smuggling groups (Score: 459) – transforming local actors into enforcers of informal order, eroding social cohesion. Normalization of violence and proliferation of illegal arms (Score: 440) – embedding violence into daily life and creating a culture of fear that undermines human security. The most vulnerable dependent variables under these unstable conditions are: Infiltration of official intelligence systems by corruption (Score: 477) Dual and conflicting roles of security and military forces (Score: 440) Mismatch between national security policy and border realities (Score: 428) – particularly due to the influx of undocumented migrants from the eastern borders. Overall, these findings point to a systemic failure of formal institutions to fulfill their core functions, leaving southern Kerman exposed to threats from informal networks and illegal cross-border activities. <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">پرسش اصلی پژوهش حاضر این است که چالش‌های تأثیرگذار بر امنیت سیاسی– <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">نظامی در جنوب استان کرمان چه ساختاری دارد و متغیرهای کلیدی آن کدام‌اند؟ هدف اصلی پژوهش، تحلیل ساختاری نظام چالش‌های امنیتی در بُعد سیاسی– <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">نظامی در مناطق جنوبی استان کرمان است. روش پژوهش، ترکیبی (کیفی–<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-bidi; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-bidi;">ساختاری) است و ابزار انجام کار استفاده از تحلیل ساختاری میک‌مک است. داده‌ها از طریق مصاحبه‌های عمیق با ۵۰ نفر از نخبگان محلی (فرمانداران، قضات، فعالان سیاسی و رسانه‌ای) گردآوری و ۳۰ متغیر مؤثر شناسایی شد. ماتریس تأثیرات متقاطع با پرشدگی ۸۸درصد نشان‌دهنده نظام ناپایدار با روابط غیرخطی است که تغییر در هر متغیر، اثرات زنجیره‌ای غیرقابل پیش‌بینی ایجاد می‌کند. یافته‌ها سه پیشران اصلی بحران را آشکار می‌کند: نفوذ گروه‌های سیاسی در اقتصاد قاچاق، استفاده ابزاری از نیروهای بومی در شبکه‌های امنیتی و عادی‌سازی خشونت به ‌عنوان ابزار قدرت مافیایی (با اتکا به حجم گسترده سلاحهای غیرمجاز). همچنین شکست نهادهای رسمی در قالب کارکرد دوگانه نیروهای نظامی و نفوذ اطلاعاتی در پوشش فساد، تشدیدکننده چرخه معیوب ناامنی است. راهکار بنیادین، گذار به «حکمرانی یکپارچه» از طریق نوسازی نهادی، شفاف‌سازی ساختار قدرت و تقویت احزاب بومی به ‌عنوان پل ارتباطی جامعه با حکومت است. غفلت از این تحول، تداوم چرخه مهاجرت نخبگان، جذب جوانان در شبکه‌های غیررسمی و تشدید خشونت در این مناطق را اجتناب‌ناپذیر می‌کند.

https://quarterly.risstudies.org/article_233450_121e3dcc51b82961456f2f5eaea18912.pdf

پژوهشگاه مطالعات امنیت و پیشرفت فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی 1735-0727 28 2 2025 08 23 Dual Citizenship in Iran: Lessons from International Experience مسئله دوتابعیتی‌ها در ایران با بهره‌گیری از تجربیات سایر کشورها 233479 10.22034/ssq.2025.496937.4237 FA مهسا شاه‌محمدی دانشجوی دکتری سیاستگذاری عمومی ،واحد تهران مرکزی.دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران. ایران. 0000-0002-5173-2709 مجتبی مقصودی استاد گروه علوم سیاسی،واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی. .تهران.ایران 0000-0001-6753-9738 محمدعلی خسروی استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی . تهران. ایران 0009-0006-9860-0021 نادر هوشمندیار استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی . تهران. ایران 0009-0003-3562-3566 Journal Article 2024 12 31 Introduction The issue of dual citizenship remains one of the main policy challenges in the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is largely due to the absence of a comprehensive and strategic approach, as well as differing governmental views on the subject. In contrast, many other countries have developed practical policies to manage the legal, political, and social dimensions of dual nationality. This study examines the experiences of selected countries and evaluates their approaches to dual citizenship through the lens of national power. The central question is: “What lessons can Iran learn from other countries’ approaches to dual citizenship to improve its policymaking?” The main hypothesis proposes that, while some countries still reject dual citizenship as a threat to their national power, many others have adopted a more pragmatic and positive view. These countries have reformed domestic laws and used international legal frameworks to minimize potential risks while turning dual citizens into a strategic asset for strengthening their national power. Methodology Where traditional perspectives tend to treat nationality and dual nationality in rigid legal or political terms, this study adopts a modern and qualitative approach. Using library-based research—including books, scholarly articles, and legal documents—it traces the evolution of attitudes toward nationality and dual nationality within the broader concept of national power, understood as the combination of a nation’s material and immaterial capabilities within its political and geographic boundaries. Findings and Discussion A review of global perspectives reveals a broad range of attitudes toward dual citizenship, from restrictive to permissive. Some countries, including China, Russia, and Japan, do not permit dual citizenship for their nationals, emphasizing the decisive role of population in national power. These countries often impose penalties, such as banning dual nationals from holding government positions. In contrast, some countries argue that population size is no longer the primary determinant of power or security in the modern world. Consequently, they impose no restrictions on their citizens acquiring foreign citizenship. Indeed, global shifts in power structures, the expansion of digital communication that transcends borders, and the growing competition for human and financial capital have all prompted many states to reconsider their policies. Today, many countries have adopted a more open approach to dual citizenship. On the one hand, they now recognize it for their citizens and have even amended domestic laws to facilitate this process. On the other hand, they have created internal legal frameworks and drawn upon international legal mechanisms to prevent potential political and legal complications arising from dual citizens. Recognizing the individual right to hold dual nationality, revising laws to ease travel and investment for dual citizens, and allocating parliamentary seats to citizens living abroad—many of whom hold dual nationality—are among the measures taken by countries with a balanced and pragmatic stance toward this phenomenon. At the same time, in terms of legal deterrence, these countries have sought to rely on internationally accepted doctrines and principles—such as the principle of state non-responsibility, the rule of primary nationality, and the theory of effective nationality—to manage potential political and legal challenges posed by dual citizens. In Iran’s case, despite having between five and eight million citizens living abroad—many of whom are dual nationals—the country still lacks a unified policy on the issue. Although recent initiatives have taken a more moderate stance, inconsistencies remain. For instance, Iranian law prohibits dual nationals from public employment but allows them to serve as advisors, creating legal ambiguity and policy inefficiency. Nevertheless, Iran’s recent approach signals a gradual shift toward engaging Iranians abroad as part of its broader strategy to enhance national power. Given that power today encompasses economic, cultural, and social dimensions—not only military and political ones—the Iranian diaspora can play a constructive role in countering anti-Iran sentiment and promoting international cooperation. Conclusion Dual citizenship has become a global phenomenon affecting nearly every country. States can broadly be divided into two categories: those that perceive it as a national threat (negative view) and those that see it as an opportunity (positive view). In Iran, although a negative attitude has long dominated, policymakers have increasingly recognized the need for reform. Recent years show a slow but clear movement toward acceptance and engagement with dual nationals as potential contributors to national development and diplomacy. Thus, while security concerns persist, the prevailing trend in Iran is shifting toward a more balanced and constructive view of dual citizenship as part of its national power. Given these considerations, it is evident that formulating a coherent and strategic policy to address the issue of dual-national Iranians requires drawing upon the experiences of other countries. As the study findings indicate, although some nations—similar to the prevailing perspective in Iran—still view dual citizens as a potential threat to national cohesion and power, many others have recognized dual citizenship as a global reality. By moving beyond a purely negative or positive perception and adopting strategic policies aimed at maximizing engagement within a secure framework, these countries have managed to transform the challenges into a political, economic, and social opportunity both domestically and internationally. In this regard, to address the question of dual-national Iranians while safeguarding national interests, Iran could initially follow the example of countries that regard dual citizenship as a personal matter, and subsequently establish mechanisms for mutual interaction between the government and dual citizens, paving the way for a comprehensive resolution of this issue. در این پژوهش با روش کیفی و با تکیه بر اصل قدرت ملی، به ارزیابی دیدگاه برخی کشورها در قبال دوتابعیتی‌ها به عنوان مؤلفه‌ای تأثیرگذار در قدرت ملی پرداخته می‌شود. پرسش اصلی آن است که تجربیات رفتاری سایر کشورها در قبال دوتابعیتی‌ها چه درس‌هایی برای سیاستگذاری در ایران می‌تواند داشته باشد؟. فرض مقاله این است: «هرچند که همچنان برخی کشورها نفی دوتابعیتی‌ها را برای حفظ قدرت ملی ضروری می‌دانند، اما بسیاری از کشورها با پذیرش اصل دوتابعیتی‌ها به عنوان موضوعی جهانی و تدوین سیاست‌های راهبردی برای جذب حداکثری ضمن رعایت اصول امنیتی، توانسته‌اند مسئله دوتابعیتی‌ها را حل و در جهت ارتقای قدرت ملی کشورشان به‌کار گیرند». در ادامه نیز این امر مورد بررسی قرار می‌گیرد که بهره‌گیری از تجربیات سایر کشورها چه آنها که دوتابعیتی‌ها را نافی قدرت ملی می‌بینند و چه آنانی که آنها را تقویت‌کننده قدرت ملی ارزیابی می‌کنند، می‌تواند زمینه ساز نیل به سیاستگذاری راهبردی و پایان<span dir="LTR" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'BLotus',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: BLotus; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Zar'; color: black;">‌یافتن به مسئله ایرانیان دو‌تابعیتی شود.

https://quarterly.risstudies.org/article_233479_7cbb24391aa3cee2f80058a4f322cd2b.pdf

پژوهشگاه مطالعات امنیت و پیشرفت فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی 1735-0727 28 2 2025 08 23 A Model of Non-Democratic Peace and the Security Structure in West Asia مدل صلح غیردموکراتیک و ساختار امنیتی در غرب آسیا 231875 10.22034/ssq.2025.523702.4277 FA سیامک بهرامی گروه علوم سیاسی، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه، ایران. 0009-0002-7367-7330 Journal Article 2025 05 17 Introduction Discussions of security have evolved along two main paths in the United States and Europe. American scholars have generally adopted a problem-solving approach, developing theories within the frameworks of offensive and defensive realism, constructivism, and debates over the relative roles of power and institutions in maintaining order. In contrast, Europeans—drawing on critical theory and emancipatory thought—have explored security through the lenses of critical security studies, feminism, the Copenhagen School, the Paris School, and post-structuralism. In short, one tradition seeks to achieve security and prevent conflict within the existing international framework, while the other views that very framework as a source of insecurity and instability. Since the 1980s, the growing influence of constructivist interpretations has helped bridge this divide. In this view, security is seen as distinct from both peace and power, and is understood as a relational concept that evolves through social interaction. Anarchy is conceived as a spectrum that must pass through its stages—from infancy to maturity and old age. Security, likewise, is understood as a relational discourse situated between the discourse of pure power and that of authentic social engagement. Building on this theoretical foundation, this study examines the security structure of West Asia, which is marked by exclusivity, volatility, institutional fragility, and a tendency toward violence. It argues that the region remains trapped in a state of immature anarchy, where competition, mistrust and security dilemmas dominate and structural underdevelopment prevents the establishment of lasting peace. This analysis is guided by two main questions: What factors explain the persistence of this immature security structure? How might it evolve toward a more mature and stable order? The study adopts the view that security structures are not purely material or power-based but are also social constructs—shaped by shared knowledge, norms, and interactions. Accordingly, the regional order in West Asia results from both the distribution of power and patterns of social relations among its main actors. Methodology Questions such as “What is security?”, “How can it be achieved?”, and “At what level should it be constructed?” have produced a wide range of theoretical answers—from realism to critical theory. Similarly, debates over whether competition or cooperation dominates the international system—and over what constitutes the security referent object, security agent, and security model—have given rise to competing paradigms. This study adopts a hybrid and integrative approach that seeks to bridge these divides. For this, it introduces a new conceptual framework—the Critical Non-Democratic Peace Model—based on the idea that the international system has shifted from a distributive to a multiplicative structure. In such a system, traditional theoretical frameworks are no longer sufficient to explain evolving dynamics. Therefore, we must either develop new theoretical perspectives or combine existing ones to capture this complexity. To this end, the paper integrates insights from four major traditions: Democratic Peace Theory Holistic Constructivism Critical Theory Structural Realism A mixed-method approach, combining qualitative and quantitative methods and relying on both library and online resources, is used to support the analysis. Findings and Discussion A central question in security studies has long been how peace emerges and under what conditions it can be sustained. In the context of West Asia, this question becomes even more pressing: Why has peace remained elusive in this region? Are the sources of instability internal, structural, or both? Does the absence of democratic governance explain the recurring conflicts—or is democracy itself irrelevant to regional security? Drawing on the Critical Non-Democratic Peace Theory, this study argues that the key obstacle to stability in West Asia is the absence of a shared understanding of balance among the region’s main powers. Sustainable peace, therefore, does not depend primarily on a state’s political system—democratic or otherwise—but rather on whether regional actors can reach a mutual conception of equilibrium in their relations. Conclusion This research challenges the assumptions of Democratic Peace Theory, which holds that peace is achievable only among democratic states. The findings show that the four major powers in West Asia—Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel—each operate according to different logics of balance: Iran: Balance of identity Turkey: Balance of interests Israel: Balance of threat Saudi Arabia: Balance of power Because these actors lack a common understanding of balance, their interactions are marked by persistent misperceptions, mistrust, and conflict. The study further distinguishes between different types of peace: A balance of power produces a fragile, fear-based peace. A balance of interests leads to a more stable, institutionalized peace built on mutual benefits and interests. A balance of threat or identity generates a normatively grounded peace—though the former is civic and democratic, while the latter tends to be ideological or sectarian. Ultimately, the paper concludes that peace is not exclusive to democratic systems. Even non-democratic regions such as West Asia can achieve peace—provided that their leading states develop a shared sense of balance, regardless of the specific form that balance takes. هر ساختار امنیتی محصول موازنه‌های بنیادین و استراتژیکی است که از سوی کارگزاران آن ساختار به‌عنوان درون‌داد در ساختار وارد شده و در نهایت ساختاری مستقل از کارگزاران را ایجاد می‌نماید. این ساختار مستقل در ادامه الزاماتی را بر کارگزاران تحمیل می‌نماید که خروج از دایره این الزامات در ادامه کار بس دشوار خواهد بود. ساختار امنیتی در غرب آسیا هم جدا از این پیش‌فرض شکل نگرفته است. مفروض این نوشتار آن است که ساختار امنیتی در غرب آسیا ساختاری غیرشمول‌گرا، غیرقابل‌پیش‌بینی، غیرنهادینه، پارادوکسیکال و خشونت‌زا است. حال سؤال اصلی آن است که دلیل شکل‌گیری این ساختار امنیتی ناکارآمد چیست؟ با اتکا بر یک ایقاع نظری به نام نظریه صلح غیردموکراتیک انتقادی، فرضیه اصلی متکی بر یک روش کیفی- تحلیلی و با استفاده از منابع کتابخانه‌ای و اینترنتی آن است که درک غیرمشترک از موازنه بین بازیگران اصلی از یک سو و عدم توجه به نگاه خاص موازنه‌ای بازیگران جدیدی که از درون الگوی نظم تکثیری سر برآورده‌اند از سوی دیگر، منجر به خلق این ساختار ناکارآمد شده است. اگر الگوهای موازنه‌گرایی را در قالب چهار نوع موازنه یعنی موازنه قدرت، موازنه منفعت، موازنه تهدید و موازنه هویت که هر یک از آن‌ها به دو نوع سخت و نرم قابل تقسیم است در نظر بگیریم، می‌توانیم بگوییم که هر یک از قدرت‌های اصلی موجود در غرب آسیا از نوعی موازنه بنیادین و استراتژیک در هدایت سیاست خارجی خویش بهره می‌گیرد که با الگوهای موازنه سایر قدرت‌ها دارای تمایز و تفاوت است. ایران با موازنه هویتی، ترکیه با موازنه منافع، عربستان با موازنه قدرت و اسرائیل با موازنه تهدید به‌عنوان موازنه بنیادین خویش، درکی متفاوت از موازنه را در منطقه ایجاد نموده‌اند که برایند برخورد این موازنه‌های متمایز، ایجاد این ساختار امنیتی ناکارآمد بوده است. در واقع، درک متمایز آن‌ها از امنیت در سطح فردی، صلح را در سطح ساختاری مخدوش نموده است. اما نظریه صلح غیردموکراتیک انتقادی بر این نظر است که حتی در بطن ارزش‌های غیردموکراتیک هم می‌توان صلح را در سطح ساختاری ایجاد نمود. گزاره‌ای که می‌تواند مشمول غرب آسیا هم باشد، به شرطی که ادراکی مشترک در میان قدرت‌های اصلی از موازنه بنیادین شکل گیرد. ایجاد نهادهایی هم‌افزا چون جوامع معرفتی علمی یا سازمان‌های منطقه‌ای کارکردی، رشد ارتباطات مدنی و دانشگاهی می‌تواند به تولید این درک مشترک از موازنه یاری رساند.

https://quarterly.risstudies.org/article_231875_45324408e695dfd811520123d98559f8.pdf

پژوهشگاه مطالعات امنیت و پیشرفت فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی 1735-0727 28 2 2025 08 23 A framework for sustainable stakeholder convergence in responsible AI governance چارچوبی برای همگرایی پایدار ذی‌نفعان در حاکمیت مسئولانه هوش مصنوعی 231865 10.22034/ssq.2025.534054.4287 FA مریم نورائی آباده گروه مهندسی کامپیوتر، واحد بین المللی اروند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، آبادان، ایران 0000-0002-6221-7008 شهره اجودانیان دانشکده مهندسی کامپیوتر، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف‌آباد، ایران 0000-0001-8798-787X Journal Article 2025 07 12 Introduction With the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) systems across public and private sectors, coordinated governance and purposeful stakeholder engagement have become essential. This study introduces a compact framework that combines SWOT analysis with stakeholder prioritization to support transparent, effective, and sustainable AI governance. Methodology The research follows three main steps: (1) Identifying internal and external drivers of AI governance through SWOT analysis; (2) Recognizing key stakeholders—including regulators, technology companies, research institutions, civil society organizations, and end users—and assessing them according to five criteria: influence, importance, financial capacity, technical expertise, and legitimacy; (3) Quantifying expert survey responses and applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to weight the criteria and rank the stakeholders. The outcomes include priority matrices and comparative tables. Findings and Discussion The AHP results show that governments/regulators and technology companies rank highest due to their legal authority, resources, and technical capabilities. Research institutions and civil society organizations occupy a middle tier—they play a key role in legitimacy and oversight but often face limited resources. End users have less influence in setting agendas but are crucial for ensuring fairness, safety, and accountability. The SWOT analysis reveals key strengths (growing institutional awareness), weaknesses (fragmented missions, uneven literacy), opportunities (standardization, public–private partnerships), and threats (regulatory disputes, concentration of capabilities). Aligning powerful actors with those that strengthen legitimacy can reduce institutional capture and promote responsible AI adoption. Conclusion The proposed framework offers a practical tool for organizing stakeholder interactions, defining roles, and tracking governance maturity. Cross-sector collaboration—especially between regulators and technology companies—should be supported by structured mechanisms for including input from research institutions, civil society, and end users. Future studies can test alternative evaluation criteria and explore cross-national case examples. با توجه به تأثیر فزاینده فناوری‌های هوش مصنوعی در ابعاد مختلف زندگی، تدوین چارچوبی جامع برای مدیریت ذی‌نفعان و حاکمیت مؤثر هوش مصنوعی امری ضروری است. این مقاله به بررسی حاکمیت هوش مصنوعی و نقش حیاتی ذی‌نفعان در تدوین و اجرای اصول و مقررات مرتبط می‌پردازد. روش تحلیل SWOT (نقاط قوت، ضعف‌ها، فرصت‌ها و تهدیدها) به عنوان مبنایی برای شناسایی عوامل داخلی و خارجی مؤثر بر حاکمیت هوش مصنوعی استفاده شده است. ارزیابی ذی‌نفعان بر اساس پنج معیار کلیدی شامل تأثیرگذاری، اهمیت، قدرت مالی، تخصص فنی و مشروعیت انجام می‌شود. این معیارها از طریق نظرسنجی‌های ساختاریافته که در میان کارشناسان حوزه حاکمیت هوش مصنوعی توزیع شده‌اند، کمّی‌سازی شده و نتایج آن با استفاده از فرایند تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی جهت اولویت‌بندی و رتبه‌بندی ذی‌نفعان بررسی شده است. این پژوهش بر لزوم همکاری بین نهادهای دولتی، بخش خصوصی، سازمان‌های مدنی و مؤسسات پژوهشی جهت تدوین اصول مسئولانه و هماهنگ تأکید دارد. جداول تحلیلی برای شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی ذی‌نفعان و مقایسه نقش و تأثیرگذاری آن‌ها ارائه شده است. هدف نهایی این مطالعه، ارائه چارچوبی هوشمند و کیفی برای مدیریت ذی‌نفعان و دستیابی به حاکمیت شفاف، مؤثر و پایدار هوش مصنوعی است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که دولت‌ها و نهادهای تنظیم‌گر، همراه با شرکت‌های فناوری، بیشترین تأثیر و اهمیت را در فرایند حاکمیت هوش مصنوعی دارند، در حالی که مراکز تحقیقاتی، سازمان‌های مدنی و کاربران نهایی در رتبه‌های پایین‌تر قرار می‌گیرند. این تحقیق به سیاست‌گذاران، پژوهشگران و نهادهای نظارتی اختصاص دارد و می‌تواند مبنایی برای توسعه استراتژی‌های حاکمیتی هوش مصنوعی باشد.

https://quarterly.risstudies.org/article_231865_307cabfc783757c054d5907d5412c090.pdf