Strategic Studies Quarterly

Abstract The role of Intelligence in statecraft is one of the main issues of Intelligence studies and political science. This article with a focus on the role of intelligence in religious democracy as a kind of modern state, tries to distinguish the status of intelligence in this system. Authors argue that intelligence is a tool of expediency diagnosis and a tool of religious democratic rules consolidation. They also claim that there is no difference in intelligence functions among religious and non-religious democracies. Albeit, they argue, limiting rules and intelligence control practices in religious democracies are more that non-religious ones.    

Abstract The effect of the eleventh presidential elections on the political stability of Iran is discussed in this essay. To find the answer, at first, the effect of this election is analyzed based on the relative deprivation theory. Then, the most prominent programs and promises of this government are mentioned as independent variants. Studies showed that this mentioned election has brought a favorable but an unstable and short- time condition for the political stability of the country. This status can be prolonged by the government’s attention to the rule of law, control of corruption, government effectiveness, developing private sector, and cost effectiveness.    

Abstract This article tries to evaluate some prediction modles of intelligence agencies on political instability, and explain their failure in predicting recent Middle East developments. Author, in his hypothesis, claims that quantitative prediction modles of intelligence agencies because of reliance on correlation rather than causation, and lack of adequate knowledge of their cases, has a limited capability for prediction. To evaluate his hypothesis, author describes quantitative modle’s prediction of Middle East developments and then compares it with his own qualitative model’s prediction.