Strategic Studies Quarterly

Abstract This article tries to evaluate some prediction modles of intelligence agencies on political instability, and explain their failure in predicting recent Middle East developments. Author, in his hypothesis, claims that quantitative prediction modles of intelligence agencies because of reliance on correlation rather than causation, and lack of adequate knowledge of their cases, has a limited capability for prediction. To evaluate his hypothesis, author describes quantitative modle’s prediction of Middle East developments and then compares it with his own qualitative model’s prediction.

Abstract

Politicization of intelligence is a perilous phenomenon in both covert and overt form, which  has dangerous impacts on intelligence organization and political system. Politicization weakens and distorts intelligence analysis and intelligence estimates. Author claims that the most important of these distortions are radical subjectivity and interpretive in analysis. This deviation first acts as a cause of failure and mal-function of intelligence and in turn causes dis-identification of intelligence before policy-makers (consumers) and public opinion. Subjectivity and interpretivism may cause positive anthropy in political system which could be a factor of surprise and failure of policies of government.

Abstract

about future events to prevent security crisis, failures and surprise. The main claim of author is that adopting futurist approach and designing warning system, can  strengthen intelligence organizations role in production of pre-knowledge about  events to prevent surprise situations. Warning system must be based on probability determination, and ranking probable. This way, intelligence analysis could approach it’s main and essential functions.