Strategic Studies Quarterly

Abstract This article tries to evaluate the idea of “intelligence as a scientific phenomenon and the possibility of scientific study in intelligence field”. Author has two hypothesis: first he argues for methodological similarity between intelligence and science, and then as a second hypothesis, tries to describe ontological similarities between scientific knowledge and intelligence knoweledge. Having explained these two complementary claims, author argues that without academic presence, the idea of intelligence as a scientific phenomenon would remain as a mere claim. So exposing intelligence for academic research agenda would shape its scientific nature.  

Abstract This article tries to evaluate some prediction modles of intelligence agencies on political instability, and explain their failure in predicting recent Middle East developments. Author, in his hypothesis, claims that quantitative prediction modles of intelligence agencies because of reliance on correlation rather than causation, and lack of adequate knowledge of their cases, has a limited capability for prediction. To evaluate his hypothesis, author describes quantitative modle’s prediction of Middle East developments and then compares it with his own qualitative model’s prediction.

Abstract

about future events to prevent security crisis, failures and surprise. The main claim of author is that adopting futurist approach and designing warning system, can  strengthen intelligence organizations role in production of pre-knowledge about  events to prevent surprise situations. Warning system must be based on probability determination, and ranking probable. This way, intelligence analysis could approach it’s main and essential functions.