Strategic Studies Quarterly

Abstract This article tries to evaluate some prediction modles of intelligence agencies on political instability, and explain their failure in predicting recent Middle East developments. Author, in his hypothesis, claims that quantitative prediction modles of intelligence agencies because of reliance on correlation rather than causation, and lack of adequate knowledge of their cases, has a limited capability for prediction. To evaluate his hypothesis, author describes quantitative modle’s prediction of Middle East developments and then compares it with his own qualitative model’s prediction.

Abstract The issue of organized crimes has recently gained the attention of those interested in new strategic analyses as one of the security threats. Nevertheless, in most cases, no reference is mainly made to the major records and the place of this issue in social sciences as well as law, and most of these studies lack depth failing to delve into the technical discussions. This shows that the researchers on security studies gradually learn the necessity of paying attention to this topic. In this article, the author seeks to precisely and comprehensively analyze the concept, dimensions and theoretical models of organized crimes drawing on the existing approaches and literature. Finally, the relationship between these crimes and political stability, social order and national security are explored. First, organized crimes are classified according to their area of activity (domestic or transnational), type of activity (trafficking, organizational and political corruption, and money-laundry), and type of the organization (Mafia-like, criminal, and terrorist), and then theoretical frameworks for the analysis of such crimes are scrutinized. These frameworks include hierarchical model, patron-client model, and economic model. The final section of the article deals with the criminal policy towards such crimes and offering a framework for evaluating them at the political unit level.