Futurology and estimate of strategic environment: a necessary factor in national security decision making

Document Type : Research Paper



Mahmod Yazdanfam Abstract: strategic decision making focuses on national and international security. Good decisions need accurate knowledge of realities, capabilities, analysis of probable options and also accurate estimate of costs and benefits of every action, regarding domestic and international strategic environment. These environments influence each other, and their interaction depends on numerous factors. Interaction of Iran's strategic environment and international system, in the course of time, has been shaped by agents, threats, capabilities, vulnerabilities, rules, discourses, agendas and Issues, and structural factors. This article by explaining these factors in both environments, analyze three forms of strategic interaction between Iran and international system: strategic coordination (harmony), strategic conflict and combination of conflict and harmony.