Introduction
This study applies the theoretical framework of “compounding crises” to examine the interconnections among security, political, and economic threats in Pakistan and their direct implications for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Unlike traditional approaches that consider threats in isolation, this research demonstrates that the simultaneous occurrence of multiple crises in Pakistan does not constitute a series of isolated challenges. Rather, it represents a coordinated and mutually reinforcing process that has significantly eroded the central government’s capacity across operational, financial, and legitimacy dimensions. This situation has direct consequences for Iran’s eastern borders and its broader security environment.
Pakistan exemplifies a state confronted with concurrent and intensifying crises: from fundamentalist terrorism led by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and ISIS-Khorasan, to separatist insurgencies in Balochistan and Sindh, and to geopolitical tensions with India and Afghanistan. The structural interlinkages among these crises have weakened Pakistan’s internal security and generated substantial spillover threats to Iran. Understanding the dynamics of compounding crises is therefore crucial for the formulation of Iran’s security policy.
Methodology
This study adopts a qualitative-interpretive approach. Data were collected from three primary sources:
1.      Documentary analysis, including authoritative security reports and data from regional research centers;
2.      Statistical data relating to security, terrorism, the economy, and public policy;
3.      Semi-structured interviews with Iranian diplomats and experts in regional security.
The study applies the compounding crises framework to examine how these crises interact and erode state capacity across operational, economic, and legitimacy dimensions. This framework provides a coherent and systematic understanding of the cross-cutting effects of crises, revealing the multi-layered weakening of Pakistan’s state structures.
Findings and Discussion
Three primary categories of crises in Pakistan were identified:
1.      Fundamentalist terrorism: The main actors are TTP and ISIS-Khorasan. Following developments in Afghanistan in 2021, these groups gained greater strategic depth and significantly intensified attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Data from Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) indicate that terrorist attacks increased by over 112% in 2024, with an additional 81% rise in the first quarter of 2025. This trend reflects a substantial escalation in violence and a growing erosion of Pakistan’s military operational capacity.
2.      Baloch and Sindhi separatist insurgencies: These groups have targeted critical infrastructure, including projects associated with the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), energy networks, and foreign investors—particularly Chinese—thereby generating heightened security and economic threats. The “Majid Brigade”, as the suicide wing of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), has played a key role in operations against Pakistan’s strategic objectives.
3.      Border-related geopolitical crises: Tensions with India over Kashmir and ongoing instability along the Afghan border have led to asymmetric military deployments in Pakistan, reducing the army’s capacity to address internal threats and undermining effective crisis management.
The analysis further highlights:
·         Operational erosion: Pakistan’s military is engaged in a multi-front, attritional conflict, weakening strategic deterrence and limiting its ability to stabilize border regions.
·         Financial erosion: Security and counterterrorism expenditures exceed 4% of GDP. Alongside declining foreign investment and reliance on the IMF, Pakistan’s economy is trapped in a cycle of recession and insecurity.
·         Political legitimacy erosion: The government’s inability to manage multiple crises simultaneously has reduced public trust, intensified dissatisfaction, and weakened the military’s authority within the political system, severely constraining decision-making.
This issue also has the following implications for Iran:
1.      Security vacuum arising from Pakistan’s operational weaknesses has facilitated increased activity by terrorist groups such as Jaish al-Adl.
2.      Economic fragility has expanded informal economies across the Iran-Pakistan border, providing sustainable financial resources for terrorist organizations.
3.      Political instability and fragmented decision-making in Pakistan have reduced the effectiveness of bilateral security cooperation and increased the likelihood of border tensions.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s crises are cross-cutting, synergistic, and self-reinforcing, and the threats spilling over to Iran share these characteristics. Consequently, the security of Iran and Pakistan is mutually interdependent, and managing emerging threats requires a multidimensional and systematic approach. Three key strategies are proposed:
1.      Strengthen and institutionalize security and intelligence cooperation with Pakistan;
2.      Promote socio-economic development in Iran’s border regions to reduce the drivers of insecurity;
3.      Strategically manage geopolitical relations with China and India, given their influence on Pakistan’s crises.
In conclusion, only a comprehensive approach grounded in the understanding of compounding crises can effectively prevent the spread of insecurity along Iran’s eastern borders.