Introduction
The southern parts of Kerman Province represent a strategically important and semi-border area that faces long-standing security challenges. Its proximity to Afghanistan and Pakistan, along with its considerable distance from the provincial capital, has contributed to persistent instability. The roots of insecurity in this region lie largely in internal issues—such as weak local governance, the center–periphery divide, the spread of illegal networks, and the dominance of the shadow economy—rather than in purely external threats.
Therefore, security in southern Kerman is multidimensional and deeply interconnected, where political, military, social, and economic factors overlap and cannot easily be separated.
 
Methodology
This study adopts a qualitative and structural approach within a systemic analytical framework. The MICMAC method (Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification) was used to identify key variables and map their interrelations.
The research sample included 50 local elites, such as governors, judges, journalists, and social–political activists. Participants were selected through purposeful sampling and theoretical saturation to ensure comprehensive and reliable data.
 
Findings and Discussion
1. Driving Variables

The penetration of local political groups into the informal and smuggling-based economy
The instrumental use of local forces within smuggling-related security structures
The normalization of violence due to the widespread use of illegal weapons
The interaction of military personnel with organized crime networks
The outmigration of elites and recruitment of youth into informal groups

2. Dependent Variables

High sensitivity to national security reforms and policies
The dual and sometimes conflicting roles of military and police forces
The significant influence of tribal leaders and ethnic elites in local governance

3. Independent Variables

Lack of strong local political parties and legal channels for participation
Public distrust toward security and judicial institutions
Limited political awareness among local elites

4. Regulatory Variables

Weak representation at the national political level
Elections used as tools to legitimize corrupt structures
Ethnic grievances and structural discrimination
Unequal distribution of political and security resources

 
Conclusion
Reforming the political–military security structure in southern Kerman requires comprehensive change across political, security, social and cultural dimensions. Sustainable stability depends on institutional coherence and transparency, active participation of citizens and local elites, rebuilding judicial and security institutions, and reducing the influence of informal networks and black-market economies.
MICMAC analysis reveals that the region’s security system is structurally unstable, characterized by complex, nonlinear relationships among variables. This instability is marked by:

Multidirectional and intersecting linkages—for example, between smuggling networks, political institutions, and security corruption—that defy linear policy solutions.
High centralization and interdependence—changes in one variable can trigger unpredictable chain reactions across the system.
Absence of stabilizing variables, making reform efforts difficult and requiring a holistic, system-wide approach.

According to MICMAC rankings, the three most influential drivers of instability are:

Penetration of local political actors into smuggling networks (Score: 490) – linking formal institutions with fuel and drug trafficking mafias, forming the nucleus of systemic corruption.
Instrumental use of local security forces by smuggling groups (Score: 459) – transforming local actors into enforcers of informal order, eroding social cohesion.
Normalization of violence and proliferation of illegal arms (Score: 440) – embedding violence into daily life and creating a culture of fear that undermines human security.

The most vulnerable dependent variables under these unstable conditions are:

Infiltration of official intelligence systems by corruption (Score: 477)
Dual and conflicting roles of security and military forces (Score: 440)
Mismatch between national security policy and border realities (Score: 428) – particularly due to the influx of undocumented migrants from the eastern borders.

Overall, these findings point to a systemic failure of formal institutions to fulfill their core functions, leaving southern Kerman exposed to threats from informal networks and illegal cross-border activities.