Introduction
Tension and rivalry have been enduring features of relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Despite numerous diplomatic initiatives aimed at reducing bilateral frictions, efforts to establish a stable and cooperative relationship have achieved only limited success. Consequently, various forms of political and strategic conflict have characterized relations between the two states over the past forty-five years. Against this backdrop, this article seeks to identify and analyze the underlying causes of this persistent tension through a comprehensive, multi-layered analytical framework.
The study addresses the following research question: What factors contribute to the persistence and escalation of tensions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia, and how do these factors operate? To answer this question, the article employs the conceptual and methodological framework of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), examining the roots of bilateral tensions across four interconnected levels: the litany level, the systemic level, the discourse and worldview level, and the metaphor and myth level. Given the exploratory nature of CLA, the study does not advance a formal hypothesis. The analysis covers the period from 1979 to 2024.
Methodology
This study examines the factors contributing to tensions in Iran–Saudi relations through the application of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), a futures-oriented methodology developed by Sohail Inayatullah. CLA is designed to uncover the deeper causes and underlying structures of complex issues and is particularly useful for understanding multidimensional phenomena that cannot be adequately explained through surface-level analysis alone. Within this framework, the primary focus is on identifying and explaining the main drivers of existing tensions. Given the large number of variables that may shape future developments, the potential future consequences of these tensions fall beyond the scope of the study.
The framework operates through four analytical layers. The first, the litany level, focuses on observable events, political actions, policy positions, and broader trends that shape tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The second level examines systemic causes, including political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and historical factors. In this study, particular attention is given to political and security dynamics at the domestic, regional, and international levels, as well as the broader historical and social conditions that influence bilateral relations.
The third layer explores the discourses and worldviews that sustain and legitimize existing tensions. This includes an examination of dominant ideologies, competing narratives, and the interests and values of the principal actors involved. The fourth and deepest layer focuses on myths and metaphors, encompassing the collective stories, symbols, and often subconscious assumptions that shape political perceptions and behavior. At this level, the study investigates widely held myths and metaphors within both societies and assesses their role in shaping the worldviews that influence relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Findings and Discussion
The findings suggest that tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are sustained by multiple factors operating across different analytical layers. At the litany level, the rhetoric, policies, and actions of political leaders in both countries reflect and reinforce fluctuations in bilateral tensions over time. At the systemic level, differences in political and economic systems, geopolitical competition, and contrasting approaches to regional and international order emerge as major sources of conflict.
Saudi Arabia’s conservative monarchical system and its strategic partnership with the United States stand in sharp contrast to the revolutionary identity of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its opposition to Western—particularly American—influence. These fundamental differences have produced divergent political orientations and patterns of international engagement, thereby contributing to persistent bilateral disagreements. In addition, limited economic interdependence, weak commercial ties, and the absence of significant economic complementarity have constrained opportunities for cooperation that might otherwise mitigate tensions. Regional competition for influence, leadership, and strategic prominence in the Middle East further intensifies and prolongs the rivalry between the two states.
At the discourse and worldview level, identity-based and ideological differences constitute another important source of tension. Saudi Arabia’s Sunni-Wahhabi and Arab identity differs significantly from Iran’s Shi'a-Islamic and Persian identity, creating distinct political narratives and perceptions of regional order. Divergent worldviews and competing regional and international discourses have reinforced mutual suspicion and contributed to the escalation of tensions. Nevertheless, the declining influence of Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia, particularly in the context of the reforms introduced under Mohammed bin Salman, may reduce the salience of some identity-based and ideological sources of conflict.
At the deepest level of analysis, myths and metaphors play a critical role in sustaining long-term patterns of distrust and hostility. Popular expressions such as “Ajam” (non-Arabs, Iranian), “Rafidi” (heretic), and “Bedouin Arab,” together with political metaphors such as the “Safavid Empire,” “American Islam,” and the “Wahhabi State,” reflect narratives associated with anti-Iranian and anti-Arab sentiment. These narratives function as powerful symbolic frameworks through which each side interprets the other, thereby reinforcing negative perceptions and perpetuating conflict. Although both countries have increasingly adopted pragmatic policies driven by economic and strategic considerations, such myths and metaphors remain deeply embedded within their historical memory and social consciousness. Consequently, reducing their influence is likely to require sustained and long-term efforts.
Conclusion
This study has examined the underlying causes of tensions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia through the framework of Causal Layered Analysis. The findings demonstrate that the persistence and escalation of tensions cannot be attributed to a single factor but instead result from the interaction of multiple causes operating at different analytical levels.
At the litany level, leadership rhetoric and media strategies contribute to the reproduction of tensions. At the systemic level, differences in political and economic systems, coupled with regional and international competition, continue to fuel rivalry. At deeper levels, worldviews, identity-based factors, ideological discourses, myths, and metaphors play a significant role in sustaining mutual distrust and conflict.
The study concludes that meaningful improvement in Iran–Saudi relations requires not only the management of immediate political disputes but also efforts to address deeper structural, ideological, and perceptual sources of tension. While changes in leadership perceptions and the mitigation of systemic conflicts may facilitate rapprochement, transforming deeply rooted narratives, myths, and collective perceptions is likely to be a far more gradual and long-term process.