علمی - پژوهشی
نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی
نویسنده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله English
نویسنده English
This article tries to evaluate some prediction modles of intelligence agencies on political instability, and explain their failure in predicting recent Middle East developments. Author, in his hypothesis, claims that quantitative prediction modles of intelligence agencies because of reliance on correlation rather than causation, and lack of adequate knowledge of their cases, has a limited capability for prediction. To evaluate his hypothesis, author describes quantitative modle’s prediction of Middle East developments and then compares it with his own qualitative model’s prediction.
کلیدواژهها English
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 3,370 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 2,212 |
